Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $2.9B, Scotts Miracle-Gro's free cash flow of $274M (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about -4% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Scotts Miracle-Gro's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from SMG's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Scotts Miracle-Gro's 10-K filings. Ten years of the full income statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9B | $3.9B | $3.6B | $3.6B | $3.4B |
| Net income | $512M | -$438M | -$380M | -$35M | $145M |
| Free cash flow | $165M | -$242M | $438M | $584M | $274M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.96 | -$7.88 | -$6.79 | -$0.61 | $2.47 |
| Operating margin | 14.7% | -11.1% | -4.9% | 5.9% | 10.5% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025. Every breakdown, year by year.
Superinvestors who own SMG
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 7 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rogers Ariel Investments |
Added | $96M | 0.96% | Q2 2026 |
| Charles Brandes Brandes Investment Partners, LP |
Added | $91M | 0.64% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Added | $30M | 0.27% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Trimmed | $18M | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Steyer Farallon Capital Management LLC |
New position | $6M | 0.03% | Q2 2026 |
| Mark Boyar Boyar Asset Management |
Trimmed | $3M | 1.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Trimmed | $577,232 | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Scotts Miracle-Gro's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Mark J Scheiwer |
693 | $71.44 | $49,508 |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Scotts Miracle-Gro's stock price imply?
At a market value of $2.9B, Scotts Miracle-Gro would need its free cash flow to grow about -4% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 4% a year.
Are Scotts Miracle-Gro insiders buying the stock?
1 open-market insider purchase of SMG in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Scotts Miracle-Gro?
7 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold SMG in their latest 13F, including John Rogers, Charles Brandes, Mario Gabelli.
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Prices and ratios as of Oct 11, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.