Carvana (CVNA)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $48.0B, Carvana's free cash flow of $889M (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 18% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is faster than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 2 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Carvana's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from CVNA's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Carvana's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B | $13.6B | $10.8B | $13.7B | $20.3B |
| Net income | -$135M | -$1.6B | $450M | $210M | $1.4B |
| Free cash flow | -$3.2B | -$1.8B | $716M | $827M | $889M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.63 | -$15.74 | $0.75 | $1.59 | $8.45 |
| Operating margin | — | -17.3% | -0.74% | 7.2% | 9.3% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by products, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own CVNA
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 9 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors |
Added | $811M | 2.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Stephen Mandel Lone Pine Capital |
Added | $692M | 4.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe Laffont Coatue Management |
Added | $216M | 0.44% | Q2 2026 |
| Lee Ainslie Maverick Capital |
Added | $174M | 1.5% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Added | $65M | 0.04% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $17M | 0.04% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Added | $15M | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office |
New position | $10M | 0.19% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $7M | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Carvana's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $299.20 | — |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $299.20 | — |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $384.30 | — |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $384.30 | — |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $427.77 | — |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $427.77 | — |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $441.48 | — |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $441.48 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Carvana's stock price imply?
At a market value of $48.0B, Carvana would need its free cash flow to grow about 18% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 2 years its free cash flow grew 11% a year.
Are Carvana insiders buying the stock?
8 open-market insider purchases of CVNA in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Carvana?
9 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold CVNA in their latest 13F, including Andreas Halvorsen, Stephen Mandel, Philippe Laffont.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.