Vistra (VST)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $53.0B, Vistra's free cash flow of $1.3B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 14% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is faster than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 8 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Vistra's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from VST's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Vistra's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.1B | $13.7B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $17.7B |
| Net income | -$1.3B | -$1.2B | $1.5B | $2.7B | $944M |
| Free cash flow | -$1.2B | -$816M | $3.8B | $2.5B | $1.3B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.69 | -$3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 |
| Operating margin | -12.5% | -8.6% | 18.0% | 23.7% | 10.7% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own VST
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 6 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $367M | 0.30% | Q2 2026 |
| David Tepper Appaloosa Management |
Added | $351M | 4.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $46M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $24M | 0.06% | Q2 2026 |
| Eric Marshall Hodges Capital Management |
Added | $2M | 0.13% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
New position | $200,667 | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Vistra's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | James A Burke President and CEO |
4,465 | $135.25 | $603,891 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | James A Burke President and CEO |
2,200 | $135.99 | $299,178 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Julia Letlow |
0 | $173.40 | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Julia Letlow |
0 | $173.40 | — |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Nancy Pelosi |
0 | $166.93 | — |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Nancy Pelosi |
0 | $166.93 | — |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa C. Mcclain |
0 | $189.47 | — |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa C. Mcclain |
0 | $189.47 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Vistra's stock price imply?
At a market value of $53.0B, Vistra would need its free cash flow to grow about 14% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 8 years its free cash flow grew 0% a year.
Are Vistra insiders buying the stock?
8 open-market insider purchases of VST in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Vistra?
6 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold VST in their latest 13F, including Hersh Cohen, David Tepper, Cliff Asness.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.