United Parcel Service (UPS)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $77.8B, United Parcel Service's free cash flow of $4.8B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 2% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is close to what the company has delivered over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from United Parcel Service's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from UPS's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from United Parcel Service's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $97.3B | $100.3B | $91.0B | $91.1B | $88.7B |
| Net income | $12.9B | $11.5B | $6.7B | $5.8B | $5.6B |
| Free cash flow | $10.8B | $9.3B | $5.1B | $6.2B | $4.8B |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.75 | $6.56 |
| Operating margin | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own UPS
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 11 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Trimmed | $398M | 0.14% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Held | $231M | 0.14% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $37M | 0.09% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Miller Miller Value Partners |
Trimmed | $12M | 2.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Bruce Berkowitz Fairholme Capital Management |
New position | $3M | 0.17% | Q2 2026 |
| Eric Marshall Hodges Capital Management |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.12% | Q2 2026 |
| Tweedy, Browne Tweedy, Browne Company |
Added | $2M | 0.14% | Q2 2026 |
| Mark Boyar Boyar Asset Management |
Trimmed | $1M | 0.72% | Q2 2026 |
| Charles Brandes Brandes Investment Partners, LP |
Trimmed | $808,078 | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Murray Stahl Horizon Kinetics LLC |
New position | $479,450 | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Added | $339,381 | 0.0% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by United Parcel Service's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $100.92 | — |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $100.92 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $108.11 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $108.11 | — |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $92.95 | — |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $92.95 | — |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Katie Boyd Britt |
0 | $95.98 | — |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Katie Boyd Britt |
0 | $95.98 | — |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Marjorie Taylor Greene |
0 | $85.28 | — |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Marjorie Taylor Greene |
0 | $85.28 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does United Parcel Service's stock price imply?
At a market value of $77.8B, United Parcel Service would need its free cash flow to grow about 2% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 3% a year.
Are United Parcel Service insiders buying the stock?
10 open-market insider purchases of UPS in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own United Parcel Service?
11 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold UPS in their latest 13F, including Cliff Asness, PRIMECAP Management, Joel Greenblatt.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.