Tesla (TSLA)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $1.30T, Tesla's free cash flow of $6.2B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 37% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is close to what the company has delivered over the last 6 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Tesla's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from TSLA's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Tesla's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $53.8B | $81.5B | $96.8B | $97.7B | $94.8B |
| Net income | $5.5B | $12.6B | $15.0B | $7.1B | $3.8B |
| Free cash flow | $5.0B | $7.6B | $4.4B | $3.6B | $6.2B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.63 | $3.62 | $4.30 | $2.04 | $1.08 |
| Operating margin | 12.1% | 16.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own TSLA
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 10 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Baron Baron Capital (BAMCO) |
Added | $5.3B | 7.9% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Trimmed | $2.6B | 1.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $1.2B | 0.43% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Added | $863M | 0.71% | Q2 2026 |
| Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors |
Trimmed | $230M | 0.66% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $94M | 0.22% | Q2 2026 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office |
New position | $53M | 1.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe Laffont Coatue Management |
Added | $25M | 0.05% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Added | $24M | 0.22% | Q2 2026 |
| Eric Marshall Hodges Capital Management |
Trimmed | $10M | 0.64% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Tesla's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $355.28 | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $355.28 | — |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $399.23 | — |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $399.23 | — |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $449.06 | — |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $449.06 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $445.01 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $445.01 | — |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $401.25 | — |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $401.25 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Tesla's stock price imply?
At a market value of $1.30T, Tesla would need its free cash flow to grow about 37% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 6 years its free cash flow grew 34% a year.
Are Tesla insiders buying the stock?
10 open-market insider purchases of TSLA in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Tesla?
10 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold TSLA in their latest 13F, including Ron Baron, PRIMECAP Management, Cliff Asness.
Other Consumer Cyclical stocks
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.