Shopify (SHOP)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $225.9B, Shopify's free cash flow of $2.0B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 28% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 6 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Shopify's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from SHOP's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Shopify's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.6B | $5.6B | $7.1B | $8.9B | $11.6B |
| Net income | $2.9B | -$3.5B | $132M | $2.0B | $1.2B |
| Free cash flow | $485M | -$186M | $905M | $1.6B | $2.0B |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.29 | -$2.73 | $0.10 | $1.55 | $0.94 |
| Operating margin | 5.8% | -14.7% | -20.1% | 12.1% | 12.7% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by products, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own SHOP
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 6 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Baron Baron Capital (BAMCO) |
Added | $1.3B | 1.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $341M | 0.28% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $42M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Gayner Markel Group Inc. |
Held | $12M | 0.09% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Added | $308,286 | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Shopify's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Shopify's stock price imply?
At a market value of $225.9B, Shopify would need its free cash flow to grow about 28% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 6 years its free cash flow grew 129% a year.
Are Shopify insiders buying the stock?
No open-market insider purchases of SHOP in the last 12 months, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Shopify?
6 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold SHOP in their latest 13F, including Ron Baron, Hersh Cohen, Cliff Asness.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.