Shake Shack (SHAK)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $2.9B, Shake Shack's free cash flow of $57M (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 17% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 8 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Shake Shack's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from SHAK's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Shake Shack's 10-K filings. Ten years of the full income statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $740M | $900M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Net income | -$5M | -$21M | $20M | $10M | $46M |
| Free cash flow | -$43M | -$66M | -$14M | $36M | $57M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.12 | -$0.54 | $0.48 | $0.24 | $1.09 |
| Operating margin | -2.1% | -3.0% | 0.54% | 0.24% | 4.3% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by products, fiscal 2025. Every breakdown, year by year.
Superinvestors who own SHAK
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 3 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Baron Baron Capital (BAMCO) |
New position | $58M | 0.09% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $22M | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Added | $610,450 | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Shake Shack's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Shake Shack's stock price imply?
At a market value of $2.9B, Shake Shack would need its free cash flow to grow about 17% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 8 years its free cash flow grew 25% a year.
Are Shake Shack insiders buying the stock?
No open-market insider purchases of SHAK in the last 12 months, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Shake Shack?
3 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold SHAK in their latest 13F, including Ron Baron, Cliff Asness, Mario Gabelli.
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Prices and ratios as of Oct 11, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.