Progressive (PGR)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $128.3B, Progressive's free cash flow of $17.2B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about -8% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Progressive's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from PGR's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Progressive's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B |
| Net income | $3.4B | $722M | $3.9B | $8.5B | $11.3B |
| Free cash flow | $7.5B | $6.6B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — |
Superinvestors who own PGR
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 14 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Trimmed | $316M | 0.11% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Trimmed | $219M | 0.13% | Q2 2026 |
| Charles Brandes Brandes Investment Partners, LP |
Trimmed | $172M | 1.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Gayner Markel Group Inc. |
Held | $165M | 1.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Francois Rochon Giverny Capital Inc. |
Added | $118M | 4.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $47M | 0.04% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $36M | 0.08% | Q2 2026 |
| David Rolfe Wedgewood Partners |
Added | $23M | 4.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Bruce Berkowitz Fairholme Capital Management |
Added | $16M | 1.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Larry Pitkowsky GoodHaven Capital Management |
Added | $13M | 4.2% | Q2 2026 |
| John Rogers Ariel Investments |
Added | $13M | 0.13% | Q2 2026 |
| Tweedy, Browne Tweedy, Browne Company |
Held | $3M | 0.23% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Progressive's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $200.98 | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $200.98 | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $207.70 | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $207.70 | — |
| Feb 10, 2026 | David Taylor |
0 | $202.57 | — |
| Feb 10, 2026 | David Taylor |
0 | $202.57 | — |
| Jan 16, 2026 | David Taylor |
0 | $202.35 | — |
| Jan 16, 2026 | David Taylor |
0 | $202.35 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $214.97 | — |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. |
0 | $214.97 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Progressive's stock price imply?
At a market value of $128.3B, Progressive would need its free cash flow to grow about -8% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 24% a year.
Are Progressive insiders buying the stock?
10 open-market insider purchases of PGR in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Progressive?
14 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold PGR in their latest 13F, including Cliff Asness, PRIMECAP Management, Charles Brandes.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.