Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $133.3B, Marathon Petroleum's free cash flow of $4.8B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 9% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Marathon Petroleum's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from MPC's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Marathon Petroleum's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $120.0B | $177.5B | $148.4B | $138.9B | $132.7B |
| Net income | $9.7B | $14.5B | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B |
| Free cash flow | $2.9B | $13.9B | $12.2B | $6.1B | $4.8B |
| EPS (diluted) | $15.24 | $28.12 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own MPC
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 5 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $212M | 0.07% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Nygren Harris Associates LP |
Trimmed | $59M | 0.08% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $25M | 0.06% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Murray Stahl Horizon Kinetics LLC |
Held | $1M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Marathon Petroleum's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Marathon Petroleum's stock price imply?
At a market value of $133.3B, Marathon Petroleum would need its free cash flow to grow about 9% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 17% a year.
Are Marathon Petroleum insiders buying the stock?
No open-market insider purchases of MPC in the last 12 months, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Marathon Petroleum?
5 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold MPC in their latest 13F, including Cliff Asness, Bill Nygren, Joel Greenblatt.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.