Harley-Davidson (HOG)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $2.8B, Harley-Davidson's free cash flow of $415M (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about -10% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is close to what the company has delivered over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Harley-Davidson's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from HOG's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Harley-Davidson's 10-K filings. Ten years of the full income statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5B | $4.9B | $4.9B | $4.1B | $3.6B |
| Net income | $650M | $741M | $707M | $455M | $339M |
| Free cash flow | $856M | $397M | $547M | $867M | $415M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.19 | $4.96 | $4.87 | $3.44 | $2.78 |
| Operating margin | 18.1% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025. Every breakdown, year by year.
Superinvestors who own HOG
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 4 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Smith Donald Smith & Co. |
Trimmed | $227M | 4.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $64M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Marty Whitman Third Avenue Management LLC |
Added | $36M | 5.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $33M | 0.08% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Harley-Davidson's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you. Every purchase since records began.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Tim Moore |
0 | $17.98 | — |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Rafeh Masood |
2,775 | $18.00 | $49,950 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Tim Moore |
0 | $20.33 | — |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Tim Moore |
0 | $21.25 | — |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Tim Moore |
0 | $21.86 | — |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Tim Moore |
0 | $23.43 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Harley-Davidson's stock price imply?
At a market value of $2.8B, Harley-Davidson would need its free cash flow to grow about -10% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew -8% a year.
Are Harley-Davidson insiders buying the stock?
6 open-market insider purchases of HOG in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Harley-Davidson?
4 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold HOG in their latest 13F, including Donald Smith, Cliff Asness, Marty Whitman.
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Prices and ratios as of Oct 11, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.