Target (TGT)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $72.8B, Target's free cash flow of $2.8B (fiscal 2026) would need to grow about 8% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is faster than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Target's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from TGT's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Target's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $106.0B | $109.1B | $107.4B | $106.6B | $104.8B |
| Net income | $6.9B | $2.8B | $4.1B | $4.1B | $3.7B |
| Free cash flow | $5.1B | -$1.5B | $3.8B | $4.5B | $2.8B |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.10 | $5.98 | $8.94 | $8.86 | $8.13 |
| Operating margin | 8.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by products, fiscal 2026.
Superinvestors who own TGT
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 8 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $427M | 0.15% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Smead Smead Capital Management |
Trimmed | $184M | 4.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Charles Brandes Brandes Investment Partners, LP |
Trimmed | $75M | 0.52% | Q2 2026 |
| Richard Pzena Pzena Investment Management |
Added | $49M | 0.14% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $24M | 0.06% | Q2 2026 |
| Dodge & Cox Dodge & Cox |
Trimmed | $12M | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Mark Boyar Boyar Asset Management |
Trimmed | $949,842 | 0.54% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $370,922 | 0.0% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Target's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $91.47 | — |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $91.47 | — |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $91.47 | — |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $89.36 | — |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $89.36 | — |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $89.36 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Target's stock price imply?
At a market value of $72.8B, Target would need its free cash flow to grow about 8% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew -3% a year.
Are Target insiders buying the stock?
6 open-market insider purchases of TGT in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Target?
8 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold TGT in their latest 13F, including Cliff Asness, Bill Smead, Charles Brandes.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.