Norfolk Southern (NSC)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $71.2B, Norfolk Southern's free cash flow of $2.2B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about 12% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is faster than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Norfolk Southern's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from NSC's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Norfolk Southern's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $12.7B | $12.2B | $12.1B | $12.2B |
| Net income | $3.0B | $3.3B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $2.9B |
| Free cash flow | $2.8B | $2.3B | $852M | $1.7B | $2.2B |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.11 | $13.88 | $8.02 | $11.57 | $12.75 |
| Operating margin | 39.9% | 37.7% | 23.5% | 33.6% | 35.8% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own NSC
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 8 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge & Cox Dodge & Cox |
Trimmed | $789M | 0.41% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Trimmed | $325M | 0.19% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan Loeb Third Point LLC |
Added | $189M | 4.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Gayner Markel Group Inc. |
Held | $89M | 0.68% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $66M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Added | $25M | 0.06% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Held | $1M | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
| Murray Stahl Horizon Kinetics LLC |
Added | $969,881 | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Norfolk Southern's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | William Jr. Clyburn |
204 | $294.79 | $60,137 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Sameh Fahmy |
1,650 | $282.97 | $466,901 |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Richard H Anderson |
2,600 | $281.86 | $732,836 |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Norfolk Southern's stock price imply?
At a market value of $71.2B, Norfolk Southern would need its free cash flow to grow about 12% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 7% a year.
Are Norfolk Southern insiders buying the stock?
3 open-market insider purchases of NSC in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Norfolk Southern?
8 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold NSC in their latest 13F, including Dodge & Cox, PRIMECAP Management, Dan Loeb.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.