Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $38.2B, Archer-Daniels-Midland's free cash flow of $4.2B (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about -5% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is close to what the company has delivered over the last 4 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Archer-Daniels-Midland's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from ADM's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Archer-Daniels-Midland's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $85.2B | $101.6B | $93.9B | $85.5B | $80.3B |
| Net income | $2.7B | $4.3B | $3.5B | $1.8B | $1.1B |
| Free cash flow | $5.4B | $2.2B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $4.2B |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.79 | $7.71 | $6.43 | $3.65 | $2.23 |
| Operating margin | — | — | — | — | — |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025.
Superinvestors who own ADM
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 7 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge & Cox Dodge & Cox |
Trimmed | $1.1B | 0.57% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $118M | 0.04% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Gayner Markel Group Inc. |
Held | $115M | 0.88% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Trimmed | $35M | 0.08% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Trimmed | $18M | 0.16% | Q2 2026 |
| Murray Stahl Horizon Kinetics LLC |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.02% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $229,200 | 0.0% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Archer-Daniels-Midland's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | David R Mcatee Ii |
7,500 | $64.90 | $486,750 |
Get an alert at your buy price
Pick the price you'd be interested at. We'll email you when ADM trades at or below it.
Free accounts get 3 price alerts. No card needed.
In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Archer-Daniels-Midland's stock price imply?
At a market value of $38.2B, Archer-Daniels-Midland would need its free cash flow to grow about -5% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 4 years its free cash flow grew -6% a year.
Are Archer-Daniels-Midland insiders buying the stock?
1 open-market insider purchase of ADM in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Archer-Daniels-Midland?
7 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold ADM in their latest 13F, including Dodge & Cox, Cliff Asness, Tom Gayner.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.