Microsoft (MSFT)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $4.09T, Microsoft's free cash flow of $67.0B (fiscal 2026) would need to grow about 20% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is faster than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Microsoft's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from MSFT's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Microsoft's 10-K filings. The deep dive has 15+ years, quarters and every line.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $198.3B | $211.9B | $245.1B | $281.7B | $331.8B |
| Net income | $72.7B | $72.4B | $88.1B | $101.8B | $133.7B |
| Free cash flow | $65.1B | $59.5B | $74.1B | $71.6B | $67.0B |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.65 | $9.68 | $11.80 | $13.64 | $17.95 |
| Operating margin | 42.1% | 41.8% | 44.6% | 45.6% | 46.8% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2026.
Superinvestors who own MSFT
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 33 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodge & Cox Dodge & Cox |
Added | $4.8B | 2.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $4.3B | 1.5% | Q2 2026 |
| PRIMECAP Management PRIMECAP Management Co |
Trimmed | $2.7B | 1.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Hersh Cohen ClearBridge Investments |
Trimmed | $2.3B | 1.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill Ackman Pershing Square Capital Management |
New position | $2.1B | 15.3% | Q1 2026 |
| Boykin Curry Eagle Capital Management |
Trimmed | $1.4B | 4.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe Laffont Coatue Management |
Added | $1.1B | 2.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Mark Massey AltaRock Partners LP |
Added | $871M | 20.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase Coleman Tiger Global Management |
Trimmed | $846M | 3.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Jean-Marie Eveillard First Eagle Investment Management |
Added | $724M | 1.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors |
Trimmed | $544M | 1.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom Steyer Farallon Capital Management LLC |
Trimmed | $415M | 1.9% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Microsoft's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | John Fetterman |
0 | $358.96 | — |
| Mar 30, 2026 | John Fetterman |
0 | $358.96 | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | John Fetterman |
0 | $356.77 | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | John Fetterman |
0 | $356.77 | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Josh Gottheimer |
0 | $371.04 | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Josh Gottheimer |
0 | $371.04 | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Josh Gottheimer |
0 | $371.04 | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Josh Gottheimer |
0 | $371.04 | — |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $383.04 | — |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Ro Khanna |
0 | $383.04 | — |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Microsoft's stock price imply?
At a market value of $4.09T, Microsoft would need its free cash flow to grow about 20% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 9% a year.
Are Microsoft insiders buying the stock?
10 open-market insider purchases of MSFT in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Microsoft?
33 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold MSFT in their latest 13F, including Dodge & Cox, Cliff Asness, PRIMECAP Management.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 7, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.