Blue Bird (BLBD)
What the price implies
A reverse DCF: instead of guessing a fair value, it asks what growth today's price already assumes. How it works.
At a market value of $1.6B, Blue Bird's free cash flow of $153M (fiscal 2025) would need to grow about -3% a year for the stock to be worth today's price. That is slower than the company has grown its free cash flow over the last 9 years.
Assumes a 9% discount rate and 3% growth after year 10, on free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) from Blue Bird's SEC filings. Change any assumption, or model revenue and margins instead, in the Modeling tab, or try your own numbers in the reverse DCF calculator.
Fundamental grade
Five factors scored 1 to 9 from BLBD's latest numbers, weighted into one grade. It describes the business, not whether the stock is a buy.
Key numbers
Results from SEC filings
Fiscal years, from Blue Bird's 10-K filings. Ten years of the full income statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $684M | $801M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Net income | -$289,000 | -$46M | $24M | $106M | $128M |
| Free cash flow | -$66M | -$31M | $111M | $96M | $153M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.01 | -$1.48 | $0.74 | $3.16 | $3.88 |
| Operating margin | 0.95% | -5.1% | 4.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% |
Where the revenue comes from
Revenue by segments, fiscal 2025. Every breakdown, year by year.
Superinvestors who own BLBD
From each investor's latest 13F filing (what a 13F shows). 4 of the investors we track hold it.
| Investor | Last quarter | Value | % of portfolio | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cliff Asness AQR Capital Management |
Added | $35M | 0.01% | Q2 2026 |
| Mario Gabelli GAMCO Investors |
Trimmed | $5M | 0.04% | Q2 2026 |
| Joel Greenblatt Gotham Asset Management |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.00% | Q2 2026 |
| Eric Marshall Hodges Capital Management |
Trimmed | $2M | 0.11% | Q2 2026 |
Insider buying
Open-market purchases by Blue Bird's executives and directors in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings. What insider buying tells you.
| Date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | Daniel Mark Thau |
400 | $51.05 | $20,420 |
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In the full deep dive
Questions
What growth does Blue Bird's stock price imply?
At a market value of $1.6B, Blue Bird would need its free cash flow to grow about -3% a year for 10 years (discounted at 9%, 3% growth after that) to be worth today's price. Over the last 9 years its free cash flow grew 29% a year.
Are Blue Bird insiders buying the stock?
1 open-market insider purchase of BLBD in the last 12 months, from SEC Form 4 filings.
Which superinvestors own Blue Bird?
4 of the superinvestors Investingly tracks hold BLBD in their latest 13F, including Cliff Asness, Mario Gabelli, Joel Greenblatt.
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Prices and ratios as of Oct 11, 2026; statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice. Superinvestor holdings come from 13F filings, which are filed up to 45 days after each quarter ends.