Stocks priced for less growth than they delivered: Consumer Cyclical
Companies worth over $1 billion whose price implies free cash flow growth at least 3 points a year below what they delivered over the years on file. Ranked by the size of that gap. A one-off cash flow year can distort both numbers, so check each company's history.
Top of the list: PulteGroup (PHM) -59.4%; Peloton Interactive (PTON) -55.6%; Maplebear (CART) -55.4%.
The median priced in minus delivered across these 50 companies is -26.7%.
| # | Company | Priced in minus delivered | Growth priced in | FCF growth delivered | P/FCF | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PulteGroup IncPHM | -59.4% | -1.7% | +57.7% | 12.0x | $21.0B |
| 2 | Peloton Interactive IncPTON | -55.6% | -12.7% | +42.9% | 6.74x | $2.2B |
| 3 | Maplebear Inc.CART | -55.4% | -2.2% | +53.2% | 12.2x | $11.2B |
| 4 | CarGurusCARG | -45.6% | -5.5% | +40.1% | 8.41x | $2.4B |
| 5 | Green Brick Partners IncGRBK | -45.6% | -0.3% | +45.3% | 13.0x | $2.7B |
| 6 | Rush Street Interactive IncRSI | -44.2% | +12.6% | +56.8% | 27.6x | $4.5B |
| 7 | Biglari Holdings IncBH | -44.1% | +2.0% | +46.1% | 15.7x | $1.2B |
| 8 | Crown Holdings IncCCK | -43.2% | -3.8% | +39.4% | 10.6x | $11.6B |
| 9 | Asbury Automotive Group IncABG | -42.9% | -14.2% | +28.6% | 5.03x | $2.9B |
| 10 | Xpel IncXPEL | -38.7% | +5.9% | +44.6% | 21.4x | $1.3B |
| 11 | Driven Brands Holdings IncDRVN | -38.5% | +3.5% | +42.0% | 17.9x | $1.9B |
| 12 | Royal Caribbean Cruises LtdRCL | -37.4% | +18.8% | +56.2% | 57.3x | $70.8B |
| 13 | The Wendy’s CoWEN | -36.4% | -15.4% | +20.9% | 4.62x | $1.1B |
| 14 | Caseys General Stores IncCASY | -33.9% | +10.8% | +44.7% | 39.3x | $23.0B |
| 15 | MGM Resorts InternationalMGM | -33.7% | -13.8% | +19.9% | 4.33x | $7.2B |
| 16 | Rush Enterprises A IncRUSHA | -32.1% | -8.3% | +23.9% | 5.91x | $3.4B |
| 17 | Smurfit WestRock plcSW | -31.0% | +2.6% | +33.6% | 16.7x | $20.0B |
| 18 | CarMax IncKMX | -30.8% | -11.0% | +19.8% | 6.05x | $7.5B |
| 19 | Visteon CorpVC | -30.7% | -7.1% | +23.6% | 7.93x | $2.2B |
| 20 | G-III Apparel Group LtdGIII | -30.2% | -16.1% | +14.1% | 4.36x | $1.2B |
| 21 | Caesars Entertainment CorporationCZR | -29.6% | -1.1% | +28.4% | 12.0x | $6.2B |
| 22 | Toll Brothers IncTOL | -28.9% | -2.2% | +26.6% | 11.5x | $11.8B |
| 23 | Deckers Outdoor CorporationDECK | -28.0% | -3.7% | +24.3% | 12.2x | $11.7B |
| 24 | Arhaus IncARHS | -27.4% | +6.7% | +34.1% | 22.8x | $1.3B |
| 25 | Mobileye Global Inc. Class A Common StockMBLY | -27.1% | -3.3% | +23.8% | 10.6x | $5.5B |
| 26 | General Motors CompanyGM | -26.3% | -17.5% | +8.8% | 6.45x | $71.5B |
| 27 | Callaway Golf CompanyCALY | -26.2% | -6.9% | +19.3% | 8.10x | $2.4B |
| 28 | Melco Resorts & Entertainment LtdMLCO | -26.2% | -30.2% | -4.0% | 3.35x | $1.6B |
| 29 | Chipotle Mexican Grill IncCMG | -25.9% | +9.3% | +35.1% | 27.7x | $40.1B |
| 30 | MakeMyTrip LimitedMMYT | -25.6% | +7.2% | +32.8% | 26.2x | $4.2B |
| 31 | National Vision Holdings IncEYE | -25.1% | +3.6% | +28.7% | 17.8x | $1.3B |
| 32 | DR Horton IncDHI | -24.9% | -2.8% | +22.1% | 11.2x | $36.8B |
| 33 | Abercrombie & Fitch CompanyANF | -24.3% | +2.6% | +26.9% | 16.6x | $6.3B |
| 34 | Kohl's CorporationKSS | -23.9% | -27.3% | -3.5% | 2.09x | $2.3B |
| 35 | Dana IncDAN | -23.3% | -4.2% | +19.1% | 10.4x | $3.1B |
| 36 | Churchill Downs IncorporatedCHDN | -23.1% | -8.2% | +14.9% | 11.4x | $5.6B |
| 37 | Monarch Casino & Resort IncMCRI | -22.4% | +2.4% | +24.7% | 15.8x | $2.0B |
| 38 | Kontoor Brands IncKTB | -21.9% | -7.0% | +14.9% | 6.28x | $3.6B |
| 39 | Expedia Group Inc.EXPE | -20.6% | -4.3% | +16.3% | 10.5x | $32.5B |
| 40 | Patrick Industries IncPATK | -20.2% | -7.1% | +13.1% | 7.87x | $1.9B |
| 41 | Installed Building Products IncIBP | -20.0% | +3.1% | +23.1% | 17.5x | $5.2B |
| 42 | LKQ CorporationLKQ | -18.8% | -10.9% | +7.9% | 6.11x | $5.2B |
| 43 | Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU | -18.3% | -2.0% | +16.3% | 12.1x | $11.1B |
| 44 | Ford Motor CompanyF | -18.2% | -18.6% | -0.3% | 3.74x | $46.7B |
| 45 | Cavco Industries IncCVCO | -17.9% | +3.5% | +21.4% | 25.9x | $4.1B |
| 46 | Group 1 Automotive IncGPI | -17.6% | -10.4% | +7.2% | 6.35x | $2.7B |
| 47 | Somnigroup International Inc.SGI | -17.3% | +5.0% | +22.3% | 20.1x | $12.7B |
| 48 | Bath & Body Works Inc.BBWI | -16.8% | -18.4% | -1.6% | 3.68x | $3.2B |
| 49 | LCI IndustriesLCII | -16.0% | -9.4% | +6.6% | 6.68x | $1.9B |
| 50 | Silgan Holdings IncSLGN | -15.2% | -6.7% | +8.5% | 8.39x | $3.5B |
Ranked from each company's latest price and reported results. Companies need a page on Investingly (SEC statements on file). Open any company for its reverse DCF, insider buying and 13F holders.
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Questions
Which company ranks first on the stocks priced for less growth than they delivered: consumer cyclical list?
PulteGroup (PHM), with a priced in minus delivered of -59.4%, as of October 12, 2026.
How is this list built?
Companies worth over $1 billion whose price implies free cash flow growth at least 3 points a year below what they delivered over the years on file. Ranked by the size of that gap. A one-off cash flow year can distort both numbers, so check each company's history. It shows the top 50 and is rebuilt every day.
Prices and ratios as of Oct 11, 2026. Statements from SEC filings. Information only, not investment advice.